“These days I’m often asked questions like “will the recovery be a V-shape or a U, W or L?”, and ‘which of the crises you’ve lived through does this one most resemble?’ Answering questions like those requires a historical perspective. Given the exceptional developments [ in the current environment] however, there’s little or no history… Read More

March, 2020 We hope our readers are staying healthy and weathering the storm relatively well.  We wanted to touch base with you since the news flow is swirling hourly and the market volatility is nothing short of breathtaking, even for the most grizzled investor. We are certainly not in the business of making short term predictions… Read More

“None of the U.S. expansions of the past 40 years died in bed of old age; every one was murdered by the Federal Reserve.” Rudi Dornbusch, MIT economist, 1997 This may be a rather graphic way of pointing out that economic expansions don’t just fade into recession without some outside help. Frequently that has come… Read More

In the twilight of the holiday season, Charles Dickens came to mind; “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it… Read More

After spending most of the year celebrating news of the booming economy, investors suddenly veered off course in October and shifted focus onto a growing list of potential concerns. On the positive side of the ledger, and arguably already baked into prices, were impressive earnings gains fueled by strong fundamentals and recent tax decreases. S&P… Read More